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NT-183 / Decision pack

Returns-cost scenarios

Include the costs that a return leaves behind.

Model sales retained, refunds, recoverable stock value and reverse-logistics costs for a stated order count. Treat the return rate as an assumption, not a forecast.

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Editable .xlsxPDF guideNo macros

Start with the decision

What contribution remains after the entered return and recovery assumptions?

Small online sellers modelling unit economics with returns.

From input to next step.

  1. 01

    Choose a consistent cohort

    Use one product, period and number of orders. Enter unit product cost and selling price on the same tax basis.

  2. 02

    Describe a returned order

    Enter the expected refund, reverse-logistics cost and recoverable value. Recovery value must represent usable or realisable stock, not the original selling price.

  3. 03

    Test the rate

    Compare plausible return scenarios and check cash timing separately. Consider platform fees, damage and customer remedies outside this simplified model where relevant.

A look inside

The example, in plain sight.

Fictional values from the workbook. Amounts are illustrative currency units, not a market rate or a customer result.

Return scenario
Low return assumption
Orders
100
Price
30.00
Unit product cost
12.00
Return rate
5.0%
Refund per return
30.00
Return handling
4.00
Recovered value per return
8.00
Expected returns
5
Scenario contribution
1,670.00

Before you use the result.

  • Expected returned units can be fractional in a scenario.
  • Do not treat recoverable stock as immediate cash.
  • Customer rights are not set by this worksheet.

A simplified cohort-contribution model; it does not calculate platform rules, tax, legal remedies or cash timing.

A few useful answers.

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What will I receive?

Each product includes a PDF guide, an editable Excel workbook, a fictional worked example, a blank worksheet with 50 prepared rows and a decision log. Working kits also include an implementation plan and an adaptable message. The exact file list is on each product page.

What software do I need?

A PDF reader and spreadsheet software that supports standard .xlsx formulas. The workbooks contain no macros or external data connections. Formula results depend on your inputs and your spreadsheet software recalculating them. No paid AI account is required.

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